conclusion that stems from the apparent lack of comprehension of factors affecting financial markets. Only a major security threat could destabilize the exchange rate, one thats even larger than the impact of the 2006 War. The investor finds that the return on his/her investments in advanced Western markets is much lower than the rate of return in Lebanon by about 4 percent. Recent articles in the media have insinuated that Lebanon is heading towards a dangerous financial crisis that could destabilize banks, lead to a devaluation of the national currency, and impoverish citizens. Banque du Liban s policy and the high interest rates prevailing in the market. This is typical of similar cases such as Turkey and other countries with a higher risk profile, especially political risk. Had there been no debt service, a surplus in the budget could have been recorded ranging between 1 and 2 percent of income. This is an important indicator showing that the current fiscal situation is healthy hadnt the country accumulated debt in previous years. State revenues have been exceeding primary expenditures (expenditure less interest payments debt service) for the past four years.
While this does not mean that we do not require reforms in several areas, there is a difference between the need for reform and being at the brink of a monetary crisis that will impoverish the Lebanese citizens. Banks obtain most of their foreign currency assets from customer deposits in foreign currencies. These include mismanagement of other subsidies, serious over-employment in many public agencies, and corruption at many levels and in public procurement in particular. This can only happen if citizens and local institutions lose confidence in the Lebanese economy and banks at a large and unprecedented scale, which ultimately leads to massive outflow of foreign exchange and a meltdown of the banking system. In Lebanon, the BDL balance sheet shows that the BDL has acquired 43 billion in net foreign assets and 12 billion in gold (see BDL website ) by the end of October 2017. The risks of collapse for Lebanons national currency evaluated in 7 key points by one of Lebanon top macro economists. Lebanon experienced in the past a much higher public debt ratio that reached 180 percent of the national income in previous years. Its only during the peak of the civil war years that Lebanon suffered a severe devaluation as the government lost control over all of its revenue sources, and relied largely on printing Lebanese pounds to finance its spending on all sectors (education, the army and. This distinction is important to make, and it is made by all international financial institutions and credit assessment agencies as it follows International Monetary Fund accepted classification of assets and liabilities. Greece lost its reserves and defaulted on its debts to European banks. .
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